Φωτοβολταϊκά: μειώνονται οι εγγυημένες τιμές – Αναλυτικά οι ταρίφες

Την αναδιάρθρωση των εγγυημένων τιμών για τα φωτοβολταϊκά ανακοίνωσε το ΥΠΕΚΑ.
Ολόκληρη η ανακοίνωση:
Το ΥΠΕΚΑέχει θέσει την ανάπτυξη των ΑΠΕ στο κεντρικό κορμό του εθνικού ενεργειακού σχεδιασμού, με στόχο την προστασία του περιβάλλοντος και την αύξηση της ενεργειακής ασφάλειας.
Η χώρα μας εδώ και μία εβδομάδα αποτελεί επίσημα το τέταρτο κράτος που συμμετέχει στη Διεθνή Συνεργασία για το μηχανισμό Feed-In Tariff (εγγυημένες τιμές με ταυτόχρονη προτεραιότητα στην απορρόφηση ενέργειας).
Αυτό δείχνει έμπρακτα την πεποίθησή μας ότι ο υφιστάμενος μηχανισμός είναι ο πλέον αποτελεσματικός και αποδοτικός μηχανισμός για τη στήριξη των επενδύσεων σε έργα ΑΠΕ, μια διαπίστωση στην οποία συνηγορούν και όλοι οι φορείς που συνδιαμορφώνουν τον κλάδο της ενέργειας στην Ελλάδα.
Ο μηχανισμός των εγγυημένων τιμών έχει συμβάλει καθοριστικά στην ανάπτυξη σημαντικής εγκατεστημένης ισχύος για την παραγωγή ενέργειας από ανανεώσιμες πηγές. Για αυτό και τα μέτρα που λαμβάνει το Υπουργείο είναι μέτρα ενίσχυσης του μηχανισμού αυτού και όχι αλλαγής του.
Η εγκατεστημένη ισχύς ΑΠΕ σήμερα ξεπερνάει τα 2,4GW. Κυρίαρχες τεχνολογίες είναι τα αιολικά και τα φωτοβολταϊκά, ενώ ακολουθούν τα μικρά υδροηλεκτρικά και η βιομάζα. Ειδικότερα τα φωτοβολταϊκά, εμφανίζουν μία πολύ δυναμική εικόνα εξέλιξης. Η εγκατεστημένη ισχύς τους τον Σεπτέμβριο του 2011 ήταν 460MW (με εκτίμηση για 580MW το τέλος του 2011), από 198MW που ήταν στο τέλος του 2010, ενώ με σύμβαση αγοραπωλησίας («κλειδωμένες τιμές») βρίσκονται περίπου 2.000MW (300% αύξηση σε σύγκριση με το τέλος του 2010).
Με βάση αυτή την εξέλιξη, η χώρα μας αναμένεται να επιτύχει τους εθνικούς στόχους που έχουν τεθεί για ΑΠΕ από φωτοβολταϊκά το 2014 (1.500MW), ενώ η υλοποίηση και μόνο όσων επενδύσεων έχουν ήδη σύμβαση αγοραπωλησίας σημαίνει ότι οι στόχοι του 2020 (2.200MW) θα επιτευχθούν αρκετά χρόνια πριν την ημερομηνία αυτή (βλ. Γράφημα).
Στο σημερινό δύσκολο οικονομικό περιβάλλον, η βιωσιμότητα του μηχανισμού χρηματοδότησης των ΑΠΕ είναι προϋπόθεση για τη διασφάλιση τόσο της συνέχισης της λειτουργίας των εγκατεστημένων μονάδων, όσο και της ανάπτυξης νέων.
Για τη βιωσιμότητα αυτού του μηχανισμού, και τη μείωση του σημερινού σημαντικού ελλείμματος του Ειδικού Λογαριασμού για την πληρωμή των έργων ΑΠΕ του ΔΕΣΜΗΕ, το ΥΠΕΚΑ προχώρησε σε ευρεία διαβούλευση με τους φορείς της ενεργειακής αγοράς και τις περιβαλλοντικές οργανώσεις. Οι απόψεις και οι προτάσεις των φορέων δημοσιοποιήθηκαν στην ιστοσελίδα του ΥΠΕΚΑ http://www.ypeka.gr/Default.aspx?tabid=763&language=el-GR.
Αξιοποιώντας τις προτάσεις των φορέων και λαμβάνοντας υπόψη την πρόταση της ΡΑΕ για τη μείωση των εγγυημένων τιμών στα φωτοβολταϊκά, το ΥΠΕΚΑ με γνώμονα την απρόσκοπτη πληρωμή των παραγωγών ΑΠΕ και την εύρυθμη λειτουργία της ενεργειακής αγοράς, αποφάσισε να μειώσει τις εγγυημένες τιμές για τη συγκεκριμένη τεχνολογία, χωρίς αναδρομική ισχύ, όπως παρουσιάζεται παρακάτω:
Για εγκαταστάσεις <100 kW και Μη Διασυνδεδεμένα Νησιά, σε €/MWh:
Μήνας / Έτος           Υφιστάμενη κατάσταση         Νέα τιμή

Φεβρουάριος 2012                  375,54                        328,60
Αύγουστος 2012                      353,55                       305,60
Φεβρουάριος 2013                  336,23                        284,20
Αύγουστος 2013                      316,55                         264,31
Φεβρουάριος 2014                  302,56                         245,81
Αύγουστος 2014                     293,59                          228,60
(Ποσοστό μείωσης: 12,5% επί της προβλεπόμενης τιμής του Ν.3734/2009 και 7% επί της νέας τιμής ανά εξάμηνο)
Για κάθε έτος από 2015 και μετά ορίζεται ως: 1,4 x μ.ο.ΟΤΣν-1
όπου μ.ο.ΟΤΣν-1 η μέση οριακή τιμή συστήματος τον προηγούμενο χρόνο ν-1
Για εγκαταστάσεις >100 kW, σε €/MWh:
Μήνας / Έτος              Υφιστάμενη κατάσταση          Νέα τιμή

Φεβρουάριος 2012              333,81                                              292,08
Αύγουστος 2012                  314,27                                               271,64
Φεβρουάριος 2013             298,87                                              252,62
Αύγουστος 2013                 281,38                                               234,94
Φεβρουάριος 2014             268,94                                              218,49
Αύγουστος 2014                 260,97                                               203,20
(Ποσοστό μείωσης: 12,5% επί της προβλεπόμενης τιμής του Ν.3734/2009 και 7% επί της νέας τιμής ανά εξάμηνο)
Για κάθε έτος από 2015 και μετά ορίζεται ως: 1,3 x μ.ο.ΟΤΣν-1
όπου μ.ο.ΟΤΣν-1 η μέση οριακή τιμή συστήματος τον προηγούμενο χρόνο ν-1
Για τα φωτοβολταϊκά στις στέγες, όπως προβλέπεται από το Ειδικό Πρόγραμμα, σε €/MWh:
Μήνας / Έτος             Υφιστάμενη κατάσταση          Νέα τιμή
Φεβρουάριος 2012                 522,5                                              495
Αύγουστος 2012                      522,5                                              470,25
Φεβρουάριος 2013                 496,38                                            446,73
Αύγουστος 2013                     496,38                                            424,40
Φεβρουάριος 2014                471,56                                             403,18
Αύγουστος 2014                    471,56                                              383,02
Φεβρουάριος 2015                447,98                                             363,87
Αύγουστος 2015                    447,98                                              345,68
(Ποσοστό μείωσης: 5%)
Σημείωση: η μείωση προβλέπεται ανά εξάμηνο και όχι ετήσια όπως ίσχυε μέχρι σήμερα και συνεχίζει έως το έτος 2019
Η απόφαση του ΥΠΕΚΑ συνυπολογίζει αφενός τη σημαντική μείωση του κόστους εγκατάστασης και τη βελτίωση της αποδοτικότητας της τεχνολογίας των φωτοβολταϊκών, αφετέρου δε την ιδιαίτερη οικονομική συγκυρία που δυσχεραίνει την επενδυτική δραστηριότητα. Η πρόταση έρχεται συμπληρωματικά στις ακόλουθες ρυθμίσεις που έχει ανακοινώσει ήδη το ΥΠΕΚΑ για την ενίσχυση του χρηματοδοτικού μηχανισμού:
- επιβολή έκτακτου τέλους 2€/MWh στη λιγνιτική ηλεκτροπαραγωγή
- αξιοποίηση της υπ’ αριθμ. 187497/2011 ΚΥΑ, που προβλέπει τη δυνατότητα διάθεσης Δικαιωμάτων Εκπομπών αερίων θερμοκηπίου 10 εκ. τόννων κατά το έτος 2012
- ενεργοποίηση του άρθρου 12, παρ.16 του νόμου 3851/2010 για τη μεταφορά μέρους των εσόδων από το τέλος υπέρ της ΕΡΤ στον Ειδικό Λογαριασμό ΑΠΕ.
Επίσης, το Υπουργείο σκοπεύει να αναλάβει διαρθρωτικές δράσεις που αφορούν και τις υπόλοιπες τεχνολογίες ΑΠΕ, λαμβάνοντας υπόψη την ωριμότητα τους και τη δυνατότητα επίτευξης των στόχων τους για το 2020, όπως:
- σταδιακή μετάβαση στη δήλωση ετοιμότητας του έργου για ηλέκτριση, χωρίς αναδρομική ισχύ, για το «κλείδωμα» της εγγυημένης τιμής, όπως ισχύει στην υπόλοιπη ΕΕ
-  μέτρα περαιτέρω προώθησης για τις τεχνολογίες της βιομάζας, της γεωθερμίας, των μικρών υδροηλεκτρικών και των μικρών ανεμογεννητριών
-  μετονομασία του Ειδικού Τέλους ΑΠΕ, ώστε να εκφράζει την πραγματική του φύση, που είναι το κόστος μετάβασης σε ένα πιο καθαρό ενεργειακό μίγμα για την χώρα.
Τέλος διευκρινίζεται ότι με βάση τα σημερινά δεδομένα το ΥΠΕΚΑ δεν προτίθεται να προχωρήσει σε μειώσεις εγγυημένων τιμών σε άλλες τεχνολογίες ΑΠΕ πέραν των φωτοβολταϊκών.

Danes decline oil, gas, coal and nuclear

The newly elected Danish centre-left government has set Denmark on a radical decarbonisation course. It has raised the CO2-reduction target from 20 to 40 per cent by 2020 and wants a complete phasing out of all fossil fuel use by 2050. Denmark, poised to take up the EU Presidency in January, already has the highest energy prices in Europe, but the government believes its new ambitious green policies will be good for the economy: they will stimulate green technology with a big potential for jobs and exports.

Denmark is already known as a very ‘green’ country – a world leader in wind power use, but also in district heating systems. These green policies come at a cost: energy levies for Danish companies are 70 per cent higher than the average in the European Union, measured against the final demand for energy. The levies paid on heating and fuel are four times higher than the EU average according to a recent report from the Ministry of Taxation (Energiafgift for erhvervogkonkurrenceevne, in Danish only).
Electricity prices for households are the most expensive in the EU.

However, this has not deterred the new centre-left coalition government, which took up the reigns of government in October, from raising the decarbonisation bar for the future even higher. Much higher, in fact. In the new energy package, named Our Future Energy – which was presented on 25 November by the new minister for Climate, Energy and Building, Martin Lidegaard, just before he left for the UN Climate Conference in Durban – the government proposes a doubling of the CO2 emission reduction target from 20% to 40% by 2020, a phasing out of coal use in 2030, with no carbon capture and storage (CCS) envisaged, and a complete phasing out of all fossil fuels by 2050. In addition, electricity production from wind power must be increased from 22% now to a whopping 50% in 2020.

Broad political agreement 

Living up to these green ideals is going to be far from easy. In 2010 fossil fuels still supplied 79 per cent of gross energy consumption in Denmark, with a share of 21 per cent for gas,18 per cent for coal, 40 per cent for oil. For one thing, the combined heat and power stations that feed hot water into the district heating systems – which in Denmark serve 62 per cent of private households – will gradually have to be converted from coal to biomass, which will necessitate the import of over 1.5 million tons of imported wood pellets annually (e.g. from Russia, Canada and Ghana).

Still, the Danish energy sector seems to be unfazed by the prospect of a carbon-free future. Lars Aagaard, managing director of the Danish Energy Association, which represents the Danish power generation and distribution companies, says of the 50 per cent wind power target: ‘It is extremely ambitious eight years from now, given it has taken 20-30 years to achieve 22 per cent, but it is not impossible’.

The ‘real challenge’, he adds, ‘will be to use the fluctuating electricity in such a way we will get a maximum of benefits from it. We will need to introduce big heat pumps in the district heating system – replacing coal, gas and biomass. We will also need plans for converting individual heating from oil- and gas fired boilers to heat pumps and for using electricity to power cars. And then we will need to have much more capacity in transmission lines to the rest of Europe, including new transmission lines to e.g. the UK.’     
             
Aagaard says he hopes for a broad political agreement on the package, so that a future change of government does not change the incentives for investments. Though having a majority in parliament the new government is – as has been the tradition in Denmark for 40 years – expected to negotiate a broad political agreement with the opposition. This may well be possible since the outgoing, centre-right government in February this year presented its own decarbonisation plan called ‘Energy Strategy 2050 – from coal, oil and gas to green energy’, which was not so very different, though it had a less ambitious timetable and targets.

Creation of jobs

 

In a first reaction, energy spokesman Lars Christian Lilleholt of the Liberal Party Venstre, which formed a coalition with the Conservatives in the previous government, said the ambitious policy of the new government will be too costly for consumers and damage the competitiveness of the business community.

Still, a compromise will probably be achieved. For a number of years now there has been a tradition of broad agreements on Danish energy policy with a strong emphasis on promoting wind power and CO2-reduction without much concern for the electricity prices paid by households. A compromise deal might lead to a lower wind power target, but offer higher subsidies for biogas and second-generation ethanol (based on straw), which is what the farming industry and green biotechnology companies have been lobbying for. Venstre generally draws strong support from the agricultural sector. At this moment, more than 1 million tons of straw is used annually to fuel power stations, but this can only be burned together with coal. If coal is phased out, that won’t be possible anymore.

According to the government, the proposals will cost DK5.6 billion (€0.75 billion) annually by 2020, in addition to a presumed increase in the price of imported coal and gas during the coming decade. But Lidegaard and the new prime minister HelleThorning-Schmidt of the Social-Democratic Party strongly insist that their policy will stimulate the development of new green technologies, e.g. in smart grids and electric cars, which will lead to the creation of jobs and generate income from exports. The package promises around 5,500 new "green" jobs per year in the coming years, but the government has made no attempt to find out how much of this job creation is the result of substitution (i.e. whether there will be a net increase of jobs).

Lidegaard, a former MP, was working chairman of a green think tank, Concito, which he helped to establish after failing to get reelected to Parliament in 2007. Concito has been lobbying strongly for green investments in wind power, energy savings, and so on, over the past few years.

New green times 

Outside observers might think that the costly green policies of the government would lead to strong criticism in Denmark, but that is not the case at all. The Federation of Danish Industry, for instance, like the Danish Energy Association, has welcomed the package – which will benefit part of its membership – although it has warned against raising energy costs further for the industry. In fact, the package includes special measures for highly energy-intensive industries. The prime minister has said that ‘industry and other export enterprises must have time to adjust to the new green times’.

The costs of the package will be paid through the Public Service Obligation (PSO) system, which is basically a tax on electricity which the state-owned Transmission System Operator (TSO) Energinet.dk
is empowered to collect to finance subsidies for renewable energy and green R&D. At present the PSO burden amounts to about half a billion euros per year. This amount does not show in the government budget or in the tax statistics. Most of this money now goes to wind energy. The new package speaks of additional costs of about three-quarters of a billion euros in increased annual PSO-charges. That includes a new levy to compensate the government for lost taxes on coal use when coal is phased out.
Among energy experts there is only a handful of individuals who question the coherence of Danish energy policy, but they are not given much space in the public debate. ‘You are not supposed to question the energy policy. If you do so, you get marginalised’, says Paul-Frederik Bach, an independent consultant and blogger on electricity planning who worked as planning director for the systems operator in the west of Denmark for many years. ‘There is a strong group thinking supporting wind power and renewables and the phasing out of fossil fuels. I think this is an offspring of many years of global warming debate in this country.’

Then there is the state-financed so-called Economic Council of Wise Men – four economics professors – who have voiced some criticisms of energy policy, though not so much aimed at the targets as at the methodology. They have argued that it does not make sense to spend money on reducing emissions in industries that are covered by the European Emission Trading Scheme (ETS), as these have to reduce emissions anyway. It makes more sense, they say, to subsidize companies that are not part of the ETS. They have also questioned the relatively large amount of subsidies going to wind power.

Fairy tale of wind turbines 

Yet wind power continues to be the mainstay of Danish energy and climate policy in the new package. The export of wind turbines by Vestas and Siemens Wind Power (until 2004 Danish-owned Bonus Energy) and the jobs associated with their production are often referred to in Denmark as ‘the fairy tale of the wind turbines’. The wind industry employs 25,000 people in Denmark, according to the Danish Wind Industry Association, and in 2010 the export of turbines generated over € 6 billion in revenue. At this moment, though, the Danish producers are suffering under Chinese competition. While Siemens, which has the lead in offshore turbines, has increased its staff during this year, Vestas has had to reduce the number of its employees.
The production of wind energy has for several years amounted to the equivalent of around 20 percent of the total Danish demand for electrical energy – or around 3 percent of total gross energy consumption. As of June 30 this year there were 4984 wind turbines in Denmark, of which 404 were offshore - with an installed capacity of 3701 MW.

The new energy package wants an additional 2100 MW of wind power capacity to be built before 2020, of which 500 MW will be land-based, 400 MW near offshore and 1200 far offshore. This is in addition to the 800 MW of new offshore wind capacity that has already been commissioned and should be on line in 2013.

A major part of the expansion will thus be made offshore. This is mostly because onshore wind turbines are increasingly meeting with NIMBY-resistance in Denmark – especially now that the new generation of wind turbines reach heights of up to 150 metres and emit disturbing low frequency noise. In the past, residents were often persuaded to lend their consent to the construction of turbines by being offered guaranteed power prices or a chance to invest in the project, but these incentives are apparently not sufficient anymore. The number of local civic groups that oppose wind power projects has grown from 40 to 125 during the past year, according to the National Association of Civic Groups against Wind Turbines. In addition, earlier this year a new test centre for giant wind turbines which is being built in Northern Jutland, and for which woods had to be cut down, drew a lot of protest from conservationists and others.

New interconnections

 

The high and increasing share of wind is not without its problems.When production exceeds demand in the Danish system today, electricity is exported at whatever price can be achieved, which is sometimes close to zero or even at a negative price in the Nord Pool system. In those cases the Danish consumer, who has to pay a guaranteed price through the PSO charge, subsidizes consumers in other countries.

The PSO-supported guaranteed price is not fixed, but to give an indication: Dong Energy was granted a price of DK 1.051 (€0.14) per kWh for its 400 MW Anholt offshore park in the Kattegat (between Denmark
and Sweden). According to a recent report from Deloitte, the costs for offshore wind parks can be reduced by 25 to 30 per cent, which would mean that the planned 600 MW Kriegers Flak park in the Baltic Sea could get a guaranteed price of as low as DK 0.781 (€0.105) per kWh. (As an aside, it may be noted that the new government has cancelled the plans of its predecessor to sell a minority share of the state controlled energy company Dong Energy.)

However, now that Danish power production will be greatly expanded, the need to export power at certain times will become even greater. This means that the capacity of transmission lines to Norway, Sweden and Germany will have to be greatly increased. Lars Aagaard of The Danish Energy Association would like to see new interconnections being built to the Netherlands and the UK as well.

The need to export wind power is especially great during the winter months, when wind power production is much higher on average than in the summer. In Denmark, this is also the time when the CHP (combined heat and power) stations need to supply the people with heating and thereby also produce electricity. This means that there will be times with a large overcapacity.

This is already the case now. During the first three (winter)months this year, Denmark exported 1715 MW to Norway and Sweden, and imported only 25 MW from the same countries. In the summer, when wind power production is lower and the Danish CHP stations produce less heat (and thereby electricity), the situation is reversed.

Fortunately, when this happens, Norway and Sweden can usually provide Denmark (and Germany and the Netherlands) with flexible balancing power, thanks to their large hydropower production capacity (except when the Scandinavian water reservoirs are low, which also happens sometimes). Problem is, Norway and Sweden (not to mention Germany) also have plans to greatly expand their power capacity, so they may need their hydropower for themselves in the future.

Ecogrid 

Lars Aagaard, managing director of the Danish Energy Association (photo: Dansk Energi)

For this reason, the Danes realise that they will have to find ways to utilise their electricity locally. This requires a balancing system which can adjust demand to the fluctuating production. One idea that is being investigated is to use wind-based electricity to heat the water in the district heating systems. Managing Director Kim Mortensen of the Danish District Heating Association has promoted this idea as a means to bridge the gap to a future smart grid system.

In the longer run, the Danes hope that the intermittency problem of wind energy can be solved with a smart grid, in which electric cars will also be integrated as well as an increasing number of heat pumps that are to replace oil- and gas-fired furnaces for heating in individual homes outside the district-heated areas.

Lidegaard, the new Minister, has promised to come up with a strategy for establishing such a grid. In October the Smart Grid Network, a group with representatives from research institutions and energy companies, published a number of recommendations for a smart grid strategy.

Earlier this year in the Danish island of Bornholm a large, four-year pilot project was started to test the possibilities and limitations of a Smart Grid system. Organisations from ten countries participate in this partially EU-funded project, called Ecogrid EU. The 2,000 households that are taking part in the pilot will have to show, by their behavior, whether the Danish green dreams can become reality.

Energy priorities for the Danish EU Presidency

As of January 1st Denmark will take over the rotating EU Presidency. In the energy and climate field, Denmark will vigorously promote the adoption of the EU Energy Efficiency Directive. It will also try to limit the amount of CO2 quotas in the European Emission Trading Scheme (ETS), thereby hoping to raise the price of CO2 emission permits. The Danish presidency will also work with the Commission to promote the 2050 Climate Road Map and the 2050 Energy Road Map.


                                                                                                                                                                                                         

Smart Grid Initiatives Address Cyber Security, Renewable Energy Intermittency

Securitizing renewable energy networks from cyber-attacks is not complicated by their oft-cited operational headache of intermittency, but rather by their separation from a utility's control system, said smart grid executives at the Gridwise Global Forum in Washington, DC in early November. Though renewable intermittency adds to the challenge of stabilizing a grid, the forum revealed new evidence of real-world smart grid load shifting that continues to chip away at the tired argument that renewable energy cannot successfully integrate into a legacy grid.

“If renewables are owned by the utility, you’re probably ok, in terms of them being under the utility [security] umbrella.  If they are not part of the utility, then you could have a problem, you just don’t know,” said Ken Geisler, director of business strategy for Siemens Smart Grid Division.  “What extends the threat surface with renewables is that the utility doesn’t own it,” added Jeff Meyers, a smart grid strategy and development expert for Telvent Energy. 
With exceptions in Europe and isolated areas of the U.S., such as West Texas, the Pacific Northwest and parts of California, green energy grids don’t yet provide enough of a utility’s baseload power to be a prime target for an attack.
But even before green grids could become a target for malefactors, the European Union is working to address potential problems in its Smart Grid Committee.  Laurent Schmitt, vice president of innovation and strategy for Paris-based Alstom’s Grid Automation & Smart Grid Solutions, is charged with defining and mapping cyber-security issues for the Committee. “Renewable nodes can be more vulnerable to the degree that the green energy grid is run by someone else.  European distribution networks are already exposed 10-20% to the intermittence of renewables…[and] what concerns the government is that…currently, renewables represent a node that, if attacked, could bring down the network.  The more renewables you have on the network, the bigger the potential impact, though it depends on the existing energy mix.”
Schmitt cited France’s EDF as a prime example of a utility whose renewable grid securitization is critical to protecting its entire electricity grid.  EDF generates 20% of its electricity from renewable sources with remaining power coming from nuclear.  “Nuclear can’t be dialed up for security reasons, so if [EDF] loses its 20%, they have a problem,” Schmitt said.
Intermittency First, Then Security
As Edmund Schweitzer, president of Schweitzer Engineering Laboratories Inc., declared at the Forum’s “Guarding the Grid: Smart Grid and Grid Vulnerability” panel, in terms of security, the nut for renewables to crack remains grid stability.  “Is intermittency a cyber-security problem? No, but it is one regarding successful [grid] integration and stability and the ability to react,” he said.
Smart grid technology itself is often seen as a potential security problem because it opens utility grids to the Internet, so adding a third party-operated, variable renewable resource to a smart grid could potentially further complicate matters.  “Smart grid means more potential penetration points. The more complexity we introduce, in some senses, we’re making ourselves more vulnerable,” says Telvent’s Meyers.  In any case, say Meyers and Siemens’ Geisler, communication is critical to coordinating different types of generation to gain stability and reliability in baseload generation.
Meyers says that means “installing some binary software or firmware, particularly to moving resources, such as turbines or fuel cells.”  Geisler adds that “the technology to do that is out there, there just isn’t anyone doing it much at this point.”  Specifically, says John Soyring, vice president of industry solutions at IBM Corp. in Austin, the industry needs “more dynamic load-shedding with a lower granularity to handle the intermittency of renewables.”
Load-shedding Could Be Key
Although utilities may not yet be doing a lot of real-time, dynamic and finely granular load management for renewable resources, they are doing more of it than ever before, particularly in areas where renewable resources make up sizable portions of the energy generation mixes.  These advances are the hallmark of a smart grid.
Randy Berry, vice president of Kirkland, WA-based Power Systems Consultants Inc. said that Mason County Public Utility District 3 (PUD3), in a Bonneville Power Administration project, is testing GridMobility technology on about 100 residential water heaters in a smart grid project designed to manage the fluctuations of wind energy generation.
With GridMobility technology, PUD3 monitors water heater usage on the grid for the participating homes.  During heavy periods, they can shut down the water heater. Then during light times when wind energy is coming in, they turn it on. They use a formula that ensures the water heater never gets too little power to keep the water hot. If that happens, the consumer can flip a switch to override the system.  Allowing the utility to control the heater reduces its need to rely on hydropower to balance its load, providing more flexibility to use wind power.
The project began last fall and so far has been a success. Berry says that PUD3 has found that choreographing the duty cycle of water heaters created a 30% increase in efficiency, a 90% reduction in the peak energy used for water heating and a 78% increase in renewable energy used to heat water.
Austin Energy did some similar dynamic load shedding last summer, said Soyring, but at the level of one of the city’s approximately 30 sections of several thousand homes. “With more granularity, you can, for example, shut down the AC in a home for 15 minutes, which would have no real impact on the climate, and is non-invasive,” he said, noting that Austin Energy customers can already buy a thermostat that will do that.
 “Grids and operators are getting smarter, but we are also on the verge of consumers being able to do all of these things,” says PSC’s Berry.  “Like, why can’t I charge my iPhone only when the wind blows?”

Germany's Solar Identity Crisis

SAN FRANCISCO -- Germany broke its own solar energy installation record in 2011 and added 7.5 gigawatts, the country's regulators said Monday. The question for the reigning solar market now appears to be: how much more does it want?

Or rather, how much more German consumers want to pay for solar energy, which still commands higher prices than conventional sources of power. The country added 7.4 gigawatts of photovoltaic systems in 2010 and with the new record for 2011, political debate has surfaced once again about the fate of the country’s solar incentive policy. German’s minister of economy, Philipp Roesler, has proposed to cap the country’s annual installation at 1 gigawatt in order to reduce the costs of the program to consumers.
The proposal has been criticized by the minister of energy, Norbert Roettgen and is no doubt unpopular among solar companies. The country is the largest solar energy market in the world thanks to the feed-in tariff program is put in roughly a decade ago. Feed-in tariffs, which are actually government-set pricing that utilities must pay to solar energy producers, have been falling throughout the years, as they are designed to do whenever installations hit a certain number.
This type of rolling cap is more flexible and typically prompts a rush to erect solar arrays right before an expected decline in solar pricing. The new, lower set of tariffs (15 percent drop) went into effect at the beginning of this month. That anticipated decline prompted developers to add 3 gigawatts in December alone.
If the country installs 225 megawatts from January through April, the solar electric pricing is set to fall by another 15 percent.
An annual cap, on the other hand, will shrink the German market significantly, much like the annual cap that caused the Spanish PV market to go from 2.7 gigawatts in 2008 to 69 megawatts in 2009, according to the European Photovoltaic Industry Association.
Germany politicians have debated and enacted additional reductions of the solar incentive before. The debate also often centered on whether the solar market had grown enough to no longer require much government help. At the end of last year, solar accounted for only three percent of Germany's power mix. 
The 1-gigawatt figure has been proposed before, in early 2011. Back then, the idea was to cut the feed-in tariffs for every 1 gigawatt installed.
While Germany remains an important solar market, many manufactures and project developers have fanned out in greater numbers to newer markets such as the United States, China and India. China and India both have feed-in tariffs now, so the market growth should last for a while, or until the governments changed their minds.
The United States has no feed-in tariff policy but a hodge-podge of mandates by certain states to add renewable power generation. While the U.S. market has grown quickly in recent years, analysts are expecting a slower increase in 2012 partly as a result of the demise of a federal program that provided cash to cover 30 percent of a project’s cost.
Solar manufactures also expect the impact of the solar market crash of 2011 — where solar panel prices fell around 40 percent as a result of an inventory pileup — to linger at least in early 2012.